How to Calculate ARV for a House Flip

What ARV is

After Repair Value is what a property is expected to sell for once renovations are complete. It's an estimate, built from recent sales of comparable properties — not the tax assessor's value, not an online automated estimate, and not what you hope the property is worth.

The comparable sales method

This is the same approach appraisers use, adapted for investors:

1. Find 3-6 recently sold comps — properties that sold in the last 3-6 months, within about a half-mile, similar in square footage (within 10-15%), bed/bath count, lot size, and age.
2. Match the finish level to your planned renovation — comps should be fully renovated, move-in ready sales if that's the condition you're aiming for. Comparing your planned flip against outdated or distressed sales will understate ARV.
3. Adjust for differences — add or subtract value for things the comp has that your property won't (or vice versa): an extra bathroom, a garage, a finished basement, lot size, view.
4. Calculate price per square foot from the adjusted comps, then apply it to your property's square footage as a sanity check against your line-item adjustments.

Where flippers get ARV wrong

• Using active listings instead of sold comps — asking prices aren't sale prices, and can run well above what properties actually close for.
• Reaching too far geographically — a comp four blocks away in a different school zone or a busier street can be a meaningfully different market.
• Assuming your renovation matches the comp's finish level — a comp with a fully redone kitchen and primary suite isn't comparable to a flip with a more basic cosmetic refresh.
• Anchoring to the highest comp instead of the median — a single outlier sale (a bidding war, a motivated buyer) shouldn't set your whole ARV.

Why overestimating ARV is the costliest mistake in flipping

Every other number in a flip analysis is downstream of ARV — the maximum offer under the 70% Rule, the profit projection, and the margin of safety if the project runs over budget or over schedule. A 5% ARV overestimate on a $300,000 sale is a $15,000 profit swing before accounting for anything else going wrong. When in doubt, estimate conservatively and pressure-test the deal with a lower ARV using the House Flip Calculator.